Bird, weather, or Russia - what really caused the Kazakhstan plane crash?

Was it a bird strike, adverse weather conditions, or Russia -- What caused the

Kazakhstan plane crash

? The

Azerbaijan Airlines

plane crash that claimed the lives of 38 people has sparked widespread speculation, with Ukrainian officials now turning their attention to the possibility that Russia’s air defense systems may have been responsible.
While Ukraine outrightly blamed Russia for the crash, the latter said that the investigations into the matter were on. There were also reports of an oxygen cylinder explosion on the flight before the crash.
According to local reports, the State Commission, formed under the direction of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev to investigate the plane crash, held its first meeting on Wednesday.

'In one word – Russia'

The head of Ukraine's national security and defense council's center for countering disinformation blamed Russia for the crash. He claimed that Russians who reviewed the transcript of the crew's conversations from the Baku-Grozny flight have admitted that the crash was caused by their air defense systems (ADS).

"Russians who reviewed the transcript of the crew's conversations from the Baku-Grozny flight admit that ADS struck the Azerbaijan Airlines plane," Andriy Kovalenko said as quoted by RBC Ukraine.
He also shared the images of the damaged aircraft system alleging that it was caused by "the explosion of an air defense missile with shrapnel."
"During the flight, the fuselage was pierced, and the aircraft systems were damaged by the explosion of an air defense missile with shrapnel. Everything is well-documented and clearly captured," he said.

"This morning, an Embraer 190 aircraft of an Azerbaijani airline, flying from Baku to Grozny, was shot down by a Russian air defense system. However, admitting this is inconvenient for everyone, so efforts will be made to cover it up, even the holes in the remaining parts of the aircraft. There is also video footage from inside the plane during the flight, showing punctured life vests and other damage," Kovalenko said in a post on X.
"Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives. In one word – Russia," he added.

Bird attack

Shortly after the attack, Russia's aviation authority suggested that the flight might have been hit by birds leading to the emergency landing attempt that eventually led to the crash.
"Preliminary: after a collision with birds, due to an emergency situation on board, its commander decided to 'go' to an alternate airfield - Aktau was chosen," Russia's aviation authority said on Telegram.

Heavy fog

Few hours after the crash, reports emerged that heavy fog in Grozny led to the emergency situation and subsequent crash.
“According to the information provided to me, the AZAL airline plane, flying on the Baku-Grozny route, changed its course due to worsening weather conditions and began heading toward Aktau airport, where the crash occurred during landing,” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in a statement.
However, Aliyev later acknowledged that there were multiple theories behind the crash and cautioned against making any premature speculations.
“There are videos of the plane crash available in the media and on social networks, and everyone can watch them. However, the reasons for the crash are not yet known to us,” he said as quoted by Al Jazeera.
“There are various theories, but I believe it is premature to discuss them,” he added.
Azerbaijan observed a national day of mourning on Thursday following the crash of the passenger jet from the flag carrier on Christmas Day.
The Embraer 190, originally scheduled to fly from Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, to Grozny in southern Russia, veered off course, crossing the Caspian Sea before.