Beirut attacks leaves Lebanon worried and waiting for another Israeli war

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Beirut, Lebanon – In the Palestinian refugee camp of Burj al-Barajneh, two men stood on opposite balconies, discussing the recent Israeli attack that killed a senior Hezbollah operative just over a kilometre away from where they were standing.

A year earlier, the areas around the camp, which is located in Beirut’s southern suburbs, were devastated by Israeli attacks. While the camp was not hit directly, the buildings shook so badly from nearby bunker buster bombs that many fled out of fear they might collapse.

Retaliation would be suicide

Last year’s war left deep scars on Lebanon.

Many villages in the south were razed to the ground during the fighting, while others suffered heavily from Israeli destruction during the ceasefire period. More than 4,000 people in Lebanon have been killed since October 2023, mostly from September to November of last year, and more than 1.2 million people were displaced. Many have yet to return to their homes, even a year later. The World Bank estimated Israel left Lebanon with approximately $11bn in needs for reconstruction and recovery.

The war also left Hezbollah, a Lebanese political and military group, badly weakened. In August, under United States and Israeli pressure, the Lebanese government approved a plan to have the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) disarm the group. But the group has rejected calls for its disarmament based on Israel’s failure to uphold its side of the ceasefire. Israel has not withdrawn from at least five points it occupies in south Lebanon, nor has it stopped its near-daily attacks on the country’s territory, killing more than 120 civilians since last year’s ceasefire was announced.

Meanwhile, this latest attack has come amid warnings from Israeli officials and reports in the country’s media of a military escalation in Lebanon. Israeli officials claim Hezbollah is regrouping and blame the Lebanese government and LAF for failing to move quickly enough to disarm the group.

Senior Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qomati said the latest strike crossed a “red line” and that the party’s leadership was considering a response.

Analysts, however, say the group is not currently in a position to attack Israel. In addition to its losses as an organisation, Lebanon’s Shia Muslim population, the sect from which it derives the majority of its support, also suffered from the indiscriminate nature of Israel’s attacks, and many fear the return of the war.

“Retaliation by Hezbollah would be suicide with no military or political value,” Michael Young, a Lebanese analyst and writer, told Al Jazeera. Young said the Israelis could be “overplaying the threat” of Hezbollah’s regrouping, giving themselves a latitude to do what they want in retaliation to Hezbollah”.

‘We are used to this’

Last Friday, President Joseph Aoun said Lebanon is willing to sit with Israel in internationally-sponsored negotiations. It wasn’t enough to stop Israel’s attack last Sunday.

The atmosphere has left many in Lebanon deeply fearful of another round of intense Israeli attacks.

“Things are very bad, unfortunately,” Khaled Muhanaya, a Syrian man living in Beirut’s Basta neighbourhood, an area that suffered numerous Israeli attacks last year, told Al Jazeera. “People are afraid to see a new war from Israel.”

“I am worried about anything happening to my family. My kids are afraid to sleep alone.”

In Burj al-Barajneh, some locals showed bravado in the face of increased attacks.

“We are used to this,” said Ali, a barber in his mid-20s, as he sat outside his barbershop.

Ali was at his shop when Israel hit the Haret Hreik neighbourhood on Sunday. He said the attack wasn’t as loud as many locals heard during last year’s war.

Still, Ali and others said the recent Israeli attack on Lebanon’s largest refugee camp, Ein el-Hilweh, that killed 13 people, including 11 children, had people speculating that Israel could target other camps, including Burj al-Barajneh.

Parts of the south ‘practically empty’

The brunt of the war’s damage, however, was done, and is still being done, in south Lebanon.

Parts of the south are still inaccessible to locals. Attempts to access such areas have been met by Israeli military aggression, including gunfire from the five occupied points.

Ali Noureddine is from a southern town called al-Habbariyeh, where seven young first responders were killed in an Israeli strike in March 2024. He told Al Jazeera that his town is filled with displaced people from villages closer to the border who cannot access their homes.

“There are areas [in the south] that are practically empty,” Noureddine said.

“Every day and every night there are drones in the sky and warplanes,” he said.

There are areas, however, where people have returned and started to rebuild their lives. Many have sunk their savings into repairing their homes. But that doesn’t mean the fear has left them.

“People are afraid at night,” he said. And not just of air strikes. “They feel that at any moment the Israelis might enter again.”

Talk of war is everywhere in Lebanon. Should an intensified war come, some southerners say they won’t leave their land again this time. Many have invested their remaining finances into rebuilding or repairing their homes. Others dread going through the living conditions they experienced during the war, such as living in shelters or tents.

“People are afraid of the idea that they will leave again because they suffered a lot during the war,” Noureddine said.

“Today, if there’s another war again, people will be very devastated, and it will be much more difficult than the first time.”

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