Analysis: Trump declares victory in Iran war after rescue, but threats to US operation still loom

US President Donald Trump was swift to declare victory after the second crew member of an F-15 downed over Iran was recovered, claiming on Sunday that the successful rescue "proves, once again, that we have achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority".

Observers, however, paint a more complicated picture of what this means for the US in Iran.

While the mission was successful, the events of the last few days - in which two aircraft were downed and at least one helicopter hit by gunfire - highlight that threats to US aircraft and personnel remain.

Several Washington sources who spoke to the BBC speculated that the loss of aircraft and the complexity of the operation to recover the pilots could potentially dissuade Trump from any ground operation to take Kharg Island and sites in the Persian Gulf, or to seize highly enriched uranium in Iran.

These operations could be complicated, and risk exposing US forces to lingering Iranian capabilities, including difficult-to-find man portable air defence systems, known as Manpads, which are shoulder-launched weapons most effective against low flying aircraft.

On the other hand, the fact that US troops were able to enter a contested environment, and set up a forward airfield and refueling point under the nose of the Iranians - then hold it for hours while two stuck aircraft were destroyed and replacements sent - might embolden him.

It could convince the administration that an airborne or amphibious operation against targets in Iran stands a good chance of success.

Trump also has sent mixed messages about the path forward, telling reporters in a series of phone calls that he believes a "deal" with Iran could be just around the corner.

If that fails, he has said repeatedly on Truth Social, that the clock is ticking on a self-imposed deadline to begin striking Iranian power plants and bridges, leaving Iran "living in hell". In a brief phone interview with Fox, Trump also suggested he might move to "take" Iran's oil, without providing further details.

An expanded campaign against Iranian infrastructure and energy targets would represent an escalation, and detractors are likely to take it as a sign of frustration that the US has been unable to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump's comments over the weekend stand in contrast to several he made last week, including a televised address on 1 April, in which he suggested that the US already has created the conditions necessary for other countries to engage in the Strait.

Also, Trump has suggested that he was willing to "leave" Iran even if a deal eluded him. But he now appears to have shifted course in the hopes that the threat of devastating attacks on a new set of Iranian targets can prompt Tehran's leadership to come to the table.