‘A very dangerous bluff’: Mark Carney warns of Brexit-like regret if Alberta leaves Canada

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has labeled oil-rich Alberta's separatist movement a "dangerous bluff" that echoes the U.K.'s Brexit vote of 2016.

Speaking to reporters in Ottawa on Monday, Carney shared "an observation from experience."

"In these separation issues, it is often advanced that, 'vote for this and it's a free option. Vote for this and we will strengthen our hand in future negotiations.' That is a very dangerous bluff," he said.

"I saw first-hand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was, 'vote for this it'll be soft and then we'll negotiate.' And they're still, 10 years later, trying to undo what people didn't think they were voting for but what they ended up having."

Last week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced plans for the province to hold a non-binding vote on whether to remain a part of Canada or move ahead with a second binding vote on separation. The vote, which was announced after months of campaigning from separatists in Alberta, is expected to be held in the fall.

Supporters of the Stay Free Alberta movement said they had collected more than 300,000 signatures in support of the separatist movement, which is partly guided by a view that Alberta has been overlooked by federal policymakers.

In 1995, the Canadian province of Quebec held a referendum on whether to become independent from Canada. Voters narrowly decided to remain part of Canada, with 50.58% voting against separation.

Carney, who became prime minister of Canada last year, served as Governor of the Bank of England between 2013 and 2020.

In 2016, during his tenure heading up the central bank, the U.K. narrowly voted to leave the European Union in a polarizing referendum.

The British pound tanked against major currencies after the vote and is yet to recover to pre-Brexit levels. London's stock market, IPO landscape and foreign direct investment also suffered in the fallout from the vote.

Following the Brexit vote, the U.K. government struggled to negotiate a deal with the EU, leading to former Prime Minister Theresa May's resignation.

Britain, which officially left the bloc in 2020, is still grappling with a raft of economic consequences. Some economists estimate that Brexit reduced U.K. gross domestic product by up to 8% as of last year, with its departure from the EU cited as a driver of weaker momentum in employment, productivity and investment in the country.

The U.K.'s relationship with the EU remains a contentious issue among the British electorate.

Last year, the EU and the U.K. announced a landmark deal to reset relations, with an agreement covering a range of matters from security and trade to travel and fisheries.

The increasingly popular, left-wing Green Party advocates for much closer ties with the bloc, while Reform U.K. — the right-wing party threatening to outflank the governing Labour party and its main opposition, the Conservatives — wants to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, clamp down on immigration and strip EU citizens of welfare rights.