US threatens to cut arms deliveries to Israel

The Pentagon and the State Department have alerted Israel that unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves within 30 days, the US might have to halt further deliveries of military aid.

The US has given Israel nearly $18 billion worth of weapons, ammunition, and other assistance since the war between Hamas and Israel erupted in October 2023. The aid is contingent on compliance with international law and international humanitarian law, officials said. 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent a letter to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer on Monday, alerting them that the deliveries of humanitarian aid to Gaza have drastically decreased and giving them 30 days to implement “concrete measures” to improve the situation.

“Failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for US policy under NSM-20 and relevant US law,” Blinken and Austin wrote. NSM-20 is a memorandum issued by President Joe Biden in February 2023, which says that recipients of American weapons must provide “credible and reliable written assurances” that they would respect international law. 

The private correspondence “made clear our concerns about the levels of humanitarian assistance that have been making it into Gaza,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters on Tuesday.

Miller added that a similar letter was sent in April. While aid deliveries to Gaza improved for a period of time, they have since “fallen by over 50%,” and the amount of aid entering the embattled Palestinian enclave in September was “the lowest of any month during the past year,” officials wrote. 

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the letter was prompted by “a marked decrease in humanitarian assistance, which has us concerned.”

While Kirby did not comment on the threat of limiting military aid, Miller also pointed to NSM-20, which put the humanitarian requirements in place.

“There are provisions under US law that require us to make certain certifications. And to make those certifications, we have to see that Israel is not arbitrarily denying humanitarian assistance making it into Gaza,” Miller said.

According to Israeli media, restrictions under NSM-20 do not apply to “defensive” equipment such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, recently sent to Israel to help counter another Iranian missile attack.

Israeli defense sources told the Jerusalem Post that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have no choice but to comply with US demands, even if that means giving up the reported plan to besiege Hamas in northern Gaza.

Washington has also publicly called on West Jerusalem to back away from a military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, in favor of diplomacy. 

The 30-day deadline puts the eventual decision on withholding military aid to Israel well beyond the upcoming US presidential election, in which the incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris has struggled to mobilize Palestinian- and Arab-American voters in traditional strongholds of the Democrats, in part due to the current administration’s support for Israel.