US election 2024: The key issues driving votes in the swing states

In a race against time, United States presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have traversed the nation’s swing states in a bid to woo undecided voters and bag crucial Electoral College votes that could decide the winner of the 2024 US election.

Even if both White House hopefuls secure their traditional blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) states, the Electoral College votes from those are unlikely to be enough for either candidate to reach the magic number of 270 needed to cross the threshold to victory.

This year, the seven closely watched swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.

Here’s a brief look at some of the key issues shaping the swing states and both candidates’ stance on them:

(Al Jazeera)

Arizona: Immigration

Since 1952, Arizona has voted Republican in all but one election (1996) before Joe Biden flipped it in 2020 for the Democrats.

This time, polls show Trump leading marginally.

Arizona is a border state, and many polls have shown immigration and border control as key issues for many of its residents. In a May poll by CBS News, for instance, 52 percent of the respondents said recently arrived immigrants from Mexico had worsened living conditions for them.

Here is how both candidates plan to tackle immigration and border security:

Harris on immigration

Vice President Harris believes the US immigration system is “broken” and in need of “comprehensive reform”. While she has pledged support for a border security bill that would increase detection technology to intercept drugs and has promised to add 1,500 border security agents, Harris has also promised an “earned pathway to citizenship” and an increase in the number of employment-based and family visas.

Trump on immigration

Overall, Trump blames immigrants for rising housing, education and healthcare costs.

Trump’s plans include deporting millions of undocumented migrants by force, sealing the border to stop the “migrant invasion” by using the military on the US-Mexico border, and constructing detention facilities.

The former president wants to reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires asylum seekers to stay in Mexico until their immigration cases have been resolved. Trump also wants to end birthright citizenship for children born to undocumented parents.

The Republican candidate wants to impose ideological screening of immigrants but has proposed automatic green cards for foreign graduates of US universities.

Georgia: Cost of living

Traditionally a Republican stronghold, this southern state went Democratic in 2020 – but only just. The votes in Georgia were counted three times, including once by hand, but that did not stop Trump from controversially attempting to overturn the results.

This time, perceptions about the state of the economy could determine how Georgia votes. A September poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with the UK newspaper, The Telegraph, found that 41 percent of Georgia’s voters viewed the economy as the single biggest issue for them.

How do both candidates propose to ease the burden of inflation – which is not yet down to pre-COVID-19 levels?

Harris on cost of living

Harris has promised to cut taxes for “more than 100 million working and middle-class Americans” by restoring Child Tax Credits and Earned Income Tax Credits. She has also pledged to increase Long-Term Capital Gains Tax from 20 percent to 28 percent, and the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent to pay for this.

In order to help lower the cost of living, the vice president has proposed a federal ban on price gouging on food and groceries.

Trump on cost of living

Trump has pledged to “end inflation” and significantly increase the Child Tax Credit while cutting government spending and bringing down the corporate tax rate to 15 percent.

Michigan: Israel’s war on Gaza

The state of Michigan was a key stop in Vice President Harris’s last stretch of campaigning and here is why: Harris wanted to make a last-ditch effort to win over the continent’s largest Arab-American community that has been angered by the Biden-Harris administration’s unequivocal support for Israel in its war on Gaza.

While pre-poll numbers show Harris with a slender lead in the state, Trump will hope that his “Muslim supporters” will help him win in Michigan.

More than 100,000 uncommitted voters in the state have declared that they will not endorse Harris or Trump and some may opt for the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, who has pledged to press for a ceasefire and halt weapons sales to Israel.

Harris on Gaza

While Harris has promised to work towards ending the war in Gaza, “allow Palestinians to realise their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination”, she has also backed Israel’s “right to defend itself” and has rejected an arms embargo on the US ally in the Middle East.

Trump on Gaza

Trump has not revealed specific details about what he would do on the issue of Gaza. However, during a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July, Trump urged the Israeli leader to “get his victory” over Hamas. He said the killings in Gaza had to stop but that Netanyahu “knows what he’s doing”.

That rhetoric is in line with Trump’s actions during his first run as president. His government recognised the disputed city of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, prompting anger among Palestinians. He negotiated “normalisation” deals between Israel and several Arab nations under the Abraham Accords and he pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, which Israel also opposed.

However, he has also argued that he will push for peace – and get it.

Pennsylvania: Fracking

President Joe Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania offers 19 Electoral College votes, the most among battleground states – and could prove to be the state that determines who wins the election.

In recent days, Harris has gained ground there, according to Democratic strategist Anish Mohanty. “Things have changed in this election over the last few days and the vice president has pulled off her campaign effectively,” Mohanty told Al Jazeera shortly after polls opened on the East Coast. Mohanty alluded to racist remarks against Puerto Rico by a comedian at a Trump rally recently as a turning point for the campaign: Pennsylvania is home to more than 480,000 Puerto Ricans.

But in addition to concerns over political divisiveness, immigration, the state of the economy and abortion, Pennsylvanians are concerned about an issue specific to their state: Fracking.

Fracking is a form of oil and gas production that environmentalists say is bad for the environment but which is the source of a huge number of jobs around the state. The practice causes earth tremors and has a high environmental cost since the procedure consumes large amounts of water, in addition to releasing methane, a greenhouse gas.

An October poll found that the state’s residents are divided on fracking: 58 percent backed it, while 42 percent opposed it.

Harris on fracking

Harris famously opposed fracking when she ran for president four years ago but in late July, her campaign officials confirmed that she will not seek to ban fracking if elected.

Harris wrapped up her campaign with a final, glitzy event in Philadelphia, where iconic talk show host Oprah Winfrey introduced her.

The vice president called on “everyone” in Pennsylvania to vote.

“You are going to make the difference in this election,” she told her supporters.

Trump on fracking

Meanwhile, Trump supports fracking and has said he will once again withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and will also remove environmental regulations, such as restrictions on fossil fuel production, deemed “burdensome”. He had withdrawn from the Paris pact during his first term – President Joe Biden had recommitted the US to the agreement when he came to power.

Wisconsin: Healthcare

Up until 2016, Wisconsin had been a reliably blue state for decades, but Trump was able to spring a surprise, beating Hillary Clinton by wooing mostly white, working-class voters who were unhappy about wages, poverty and rising healthcare costs.

Four years later, Biden was able to bring the state back into the Democratic Party’s fold.

This time, multiple opinion polls have suggested that healthcare is the most pressing issue for voters, in a state that has been badly affected by the country’s opioid crisis.

Harris on healthcare

Harris has said she will lower the cost of pharmaceutical drugs, strengthen the Affordable Care Act, and lower healthcare premiums. If elected, she will also work with states to cancel medical debt for more people, she has promised.

Trump on healthcare

On the other hand, Trump says he is “looking at alternatives” to the Affordable Care Act, which he calls too expensive.

Nevada: Unemployment

While Nevada has the fewest Electoral College votes – six – among the swing states, they could still be crucial in such a close race.

Nevada suffers from the highest unemployment rate among all US states – only Washington, DC has a higher joblessness rate – as well as high costs of living.

Harris on unemployment

Harris has promised to review which federal jobs require a college degree if elected president.

“We need to get in front of this idea that only high-skilled jobs require college degrees,” Harris said at a rally in October, promising she would tackle this on “day one” of her presidency.

Trump on unemployment

At his October rally in Nevada, Trump promised to tackle inflation, but in a more recent rally this month, did not address the issue of unemployment.

Al Jazeera’s John Holman, who attended Trump’s November rally in Nevada, noted that while Trump concentrated on migration, the primary concern for voters in Nevada is the economy.

“This is the state with the highest unemployment in the US. It’s been hit hard with inflation. Gas prices, in particular, are high, and it’s a state that has never completely recovered from the pandemic,” Holman said.

North Carolina: Abortion

North Carolina is the only one of this year’s swing states to have been won by Trump in 2020 and although Harris does not necessarily need to win North Carolina, any scenario in which she does will make her path to 270 a lot easier.

Trump can also get to 270 without North Carolina but doing so will be very difficult.

Abortion is a key issue in the state, according to polls. The state reduced the legal limit for abortions from 20 weeks of pregnancy to just 12 weeks in 2023 after the US Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade court ruling granting the right to abortion.

The ruling left the issue largely unresolved and turned the current election into a referendum on fundamental rights for women.

Democrats are hoping that the issue of abortion will motivate white women, who have historically favoured Republicans and 60 percent of whom voted for Trump in 2020, to now vote for Harris instead.

Harris on abortion

The vice president, hoping to become the first female president in the country’s history, has said she will prevent a national abortion ban from becoming law and will sign any bill passed by Congress that restores the legality of abortion nationwide.

Trump on abortion

Meanwhile, Trump has said abortion laws are for individual states to decide and said he will not sign a national abortion ban. However, he has not signalled that he would oppose states – like North Carolina – adopting restrictive measures against reproductive rights.